Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the English Premier League match.
Bournemouth sit three points ahead of Brighton in the table, but they aren’t considered favourites in this fixture. And it’s not just because they are on the road.
Brighton
Brighton performed superbly in their last outing, benefitting from a favourable match-up. Southampton, with their current squad, simply couldn’t compete with a team as well-drilled as Brighton. Fabian Hürzeler, with his German footballing philosophy, has built a cohesive unit that isn’t reliant on one or two star strikers – six players have five or more goals to their name. Jorginho Rütter and Kaoru Mitoma lead the way with eight apiece, both finding the net against Southampton. Brighton have also been relatively tight at the back in recent months. The match against Nottingham Forest (0:7) was an anomaly for both sides. In the other eight matches, Brighton have conceded just four goals.
Bournemouth
In Matchday 26, Bournemouth lost to Wolverhampton Wanderers, primarily due to a red card for centre-back Illia Zabarnyi in the 31st minute. Five minutes later, Wolverhampton capitalised on their numerical advantage. This match, and that incident in particular, highlights the lack of discipline within the team. Bournemouth are top of the Premier League for fouls committed (13.7) and third for cautions received (67 yellow cards and 1 red card). Brighton also commit a fair few fouls (11.9), placing them fifth, but they are only 12th in the bookings table.
Brighton vs Bournemouth Prediction
Bournemouth will be without their Ukrainian defender, who leads the team for minutes played (2281 minutes). This is certain to disrupt their balance. In the nine matches since the start of the year with Illia Zabarnyi in the team, Bournemouth have conceded eight times, only twice conceding more than one in a match - both against Chelsea and Liverpool (twice). Given the defensive solidity of both sides, scoring three goals in this match will be a tall order.
