Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Madrid Masters match.
Bu Yunchaokete seems to have had a slightly favourable draw in the opening round, facing a qualifier. However, that qualifier, Jacob Fearnley, is actually ranked higher in the ATP standings—No. 68 compared to the Chinese player’s No. 72. It’s an unusual scenario.
Bu Yunchaokete
As such, Jacob Fearnley is considered a marginal favourite. Both players have recorded five match wins this season, but Bu Yunchaokete has competed in 12 tournaments, while Fearnley has played in just five. The highest-ranked opponent defeated by the Chinese player this season was Rinky Hijikata, who was ranked No. 72 at the time.
Jacob Fearnley
Fearnley has taken a different path in his campaign. While his opponent has focused exclusively on ATP-level events, he has included ITF Challenger tournaments in his calendar. At the beginning of the season, the 23-year-old reached the semi-finals in Canberra and followed it with a quarter-final appearance in Pau, France, in February. Fearnley has also shown solid form on the ATP circuit. Just last week in Barcelona, he beat world No. 55 Roberto Carballés Baena in straight sets (6:1, 7:5), before losing in the second round of the ATP 500 clay event to world No. 11 Alex de Minaur (1:6, 2:6).
Bu Yunchaokete vs Jacob Fearnley Prediction
Bu Yunchaokete has played three matches on clay this season but lost all of them against top-50 opponents, including a defeat to Alexander Zverev. Crucially, Jacob Fearnley has already gone through two rounds of qualifying in Madrid, which gives him valuable match rhythm leading into this encounter. A narrow win for the British player looks likely.
