Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UEFA Nations League match.
From one qualification to the next, Luxembourg have been improving steadily in major tournaments, but in this Nations League, they seem to have taken a step back. Bulgaria, on the other hand, have been on a downward trajectory, yet managed to get through the September fixtures without defeat or conceding a goal. Should we anticipate these trends to continue?
Bulgaria
Bulgaria managed to keep a clean sheet even while playing with ten men against Belarus. Before the sending-off, they should have taken the lead, but the Belarusian goalkeeper was in top form, and scoring afterwards proved challenging. The game ended goalless. Against Northern Ireland, Bulgaria played well when needed. Up until the 40th minute, they were pressing for a goal (8 shots with 3 on target and nearly 60% possession), and once they achieved their goal, they ceded possession. However, Northern Ireland couldn't capitalise, managing only three off-target efforts.
Luxembourg
Following their loss in March's final qualifying round for the European Championship, Luxembourg appeared deflated. Where is the team that nearly qualified directly for the Euros? Their dropped points against Slovakia cost them a second-place finish. In September, they failed to score against both Belarus and Northern Ireland, though they only conceded two goals over three matches. The issue lies in their weak attack: averaging just 6.5 shots per Nations League match, with only 0.5 on target.
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg Prediction
Both teams tend to concede heavily only against top-tier sides. Bulgaria haven't conceded more than two goals in their last 14 games, and Luxembourg have only allowed three goals against Belgium and France in their last 10 matches. In those same 10 matches, Bulgaria saw the total under 2.5 in eight games, and Luxembourg in six. It's hard to go against the trend, so we’re opting for the total under.
