Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
In the previous round, Burnley couldn’t overcome fellow contenders Middlesbrough (1:1). Now, they are set to face Derby County, who recently fell to Leeds United (0:2). Can they hold their own against Burnley?
Burnley
Burnley struggled to find the net between October and November, from the 12th to the 14th round. However, they eventually broke that spell, albeit still scoring modestly with usually under two goals. A total under 2.5 is almost a safe bet with them, a pattern they have consistently maintained for 13 consecutive rounds. The last match that differed was against Portsmouth on 21st September (2:1).
Derby County
Derby County are not typically known for high-scoring games either. They manage a goal or two and call it a day. This trend was evident not only against Leeds United in the last round but in most games since October (8 out of 12). Furthermore, in half of these instances, they relied on free kicks and corners to score (11 out of 22). Given that the home side have conceded the fewest in the league, particularly from dead-ball situations (only one), Derby’s chances of scoring look slim.
Burnley vs Derby County Prediction
Consequently, we are confident not only that the match will see a total under, but also that Burnley will not lose. This season, they have remained unbeaten at home, with five wins and four draws.
