Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
In the last five rounds, Burnley have garnered only eight points, just one more than Plymouth Argyle, who were considered one of the main underdogs before the season began. Can they clinch a win?
Burnley
Only one of Burnley's last six matches has featured more than two goals. This happened against Portsmouth (2:1). In the other matches, there were just two goals a couple of times: against Wolverhampton in the League Cup (0:2) and Blackburn Rovers (1:1). Where would the goals come from? Their €18 million signing, winger Mike Trésor, has yet to play for the club. Burnley have netted just 13 goals in seven matches (most of these in the first two rounds), and they lack a consistent goalscorer. Instead, their captain, Josh Brownhill, who is not known for scoring, has had to step up.
Plymouth Argyle
Plymouth Argyle are managed by Wayne Rooney. He still has the mentality of a striker and wants his teams to play vibrant attacking football, which is evident in their play. Their players are unafraid to press forward. On average, Plymouth Argyle take 13 shots per match (10th best in the league), but they are scoring only 1.1 goals per game. The problem is that most of their shots come from outside the box (51%, the highest percentage in the league). This attacking tendency has led to defensive lapses: the team ranks first for most shots allowed both overall (20 shots) and away (26 shots). However, this does not automatically mean Burnley will score multiple goals, or that the total will exceed 2.5. Plymouth Argyle also confidently rank first in the discrepancy between expected goals against xGA (17.07) and actual goals conceded (11).
Burnley vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction
All the above points clearly favour a low-scoring game. It is unclear why the bookmakers doubt the total under. If you win, your return will more than double your stake. It's worth the bet!
