Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Barcelona match.
Carlos Alcaraz continues his campaign in Barcelona with confidence, having already won the title twice at this venue. However, several of his recent matches have required considerable effort to see off his opponents. Alex de Minaur is in excellent form and has looked composed throughout the tournament. He is expected to pose a serious challenge to the Spaniard once again, just as he did in their 2022 clash (7:6, 6:7, 6:4).
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz has put together a seven-match winning streak on clay this spring and is currently unbeaten in his last 12 matches in Barcelona. However, his recent showings have not been entirely dominant—he has dropped at least one set in four of his last six matches against top-10 ranked opponents. In this tournament, Alcaraz defeated Ethan Quinn (6:2, 7:6), needing a tiebreak to close out the second set, and then beat Laslo Djere (6:2, 6:4) in more straightforward fashion. Alex de Minaur will be his toughest opponent in Barcelona so far.
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur has adapted well to clay at the start of the season, winning five of six matches—four of them in straight sets. He has looked particularly comfortable in Barcelona, where he has now reached the quarter-finals for the third time in his career. Furthermore, he has taken at least one set in six of his last seven ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final appearances. He also held match points against Carlos Alcaraz three years ago. Notably, in this tournament, he has averaged an impressive 85% of points won on his first serve.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Prediction
While Carlos Alcaraz enters as the favourite, his recent wins have not been especially convincing. Alex de Minaur is in excellent form, consistent from the baseline, and should be able to keep this match close. This is unlikely to be a straightforward win for Carlos Alcaraz.
