Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Nitto ATP Finals match.
For Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev, this match in Turin is critical. Both players began the finals with defeats, and victory in the upcoming encounter is their only chance to extend their pursuit of a playoff spot. Last year, in a similar situation, Alcaraz overcame Rublev, which adds to the Spaniard's confidence. However, the Russian is equally motivated for a rematch, aiming to demonstrate stability and overcome his tendency for errors under pressure.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz is a player with a wide range of shots and impressive physical fitness, allowing him to excel on all surfaces. This year, the Spaniard has won seven of his eight meetings with Russian opponents. However, he continues to face difficulties on indoor hard courts—holding five wins and three losses, with all matches concluding in under 20 games. In his recent clash against Casper Ruud, he struggled due to a cold, leading to a sharp decline in performance and a series of unforced errors. In this match, Alcaraz lost five consecutive games in both sets, indicating a possible dip in physical readiness.
Andrey Rublev
Rublev, on the other hand, boasts a powerful serve and an impressive forehand, which, combined with his experience in indoor venues, aids him in such matches. Nonetheless, at the tournament’s start, the Russian showed inconsistency, losing to Alexander Zverev, marking his tenth consecutive lost set in Turin. Rublev's win percentage on his second serve in similar matches hovers around 50, which could be a significant factor against Alcaraz. The Russian also tends to end matches with low totals; his last five matches in Turin concluded in under 20 games.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
The difficulty in choosing a winner lies in how much Alcaraz can recover physically after his recent illness. If he manages to compete in his regular form, his versatile style and ability to vary the pace of play make him the favourite. Otherwise, Rublev, known for his aggressive style and quick serve, stands a good chance of coming out on top. Considering that both players often play straight sets and over a third of their autumn matches on indoor courts have ended with a total of 25 games or less, betting on a total under 25.5 is optimal.
