Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Tokyo match.
Carlos Alcaraz has his sights set on claiming the inaugural Tokyo title and underlining his status as the world No.1. Casper Ruud, meanwhile, is looking to put past disappointments in Japan behind him by reaching the semi-finals — but against an elite hard-court opponent, his chances look slim.
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos has lived up to expectations at the Tokyo 500, brushing aside his opponents in straight sets. After early wins over Sebastian Baez and Zizou Bergs, Alcaraz took down Brandon Nakashima despite a minor ankle issue, showcasing his trademark movement and winning 83% of points behind his first serve. Since last year, the Spaniard has won five of six semi-finals on hard courts and holds a flawless 3-0 record against Casper Ruud on outdoor hard.
Casper Ruud
For Ruud, primarily a clay-court specialist, simply reaching the Tokyo semi-finals is an achievement, given his early eliminations in recent events. But his struggles against top-five players on hard courts are well-documented — losing 10 of his 13 matches at this level, including all three against Carlos Alcaraz. His run this week has been aided by a kind draw, overcoming Shintaro Mochizuki, Matteo Berrettini and Aleksandar Vukic, all ranked outside the world’s top 50.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Prediction
Alcaraz is playing at the peak of his powers, combining precise ball-striking with lightning-quick attacking transitions. Ruud has made progress in Tokyo, but his wins have come against modest opposition, and history suggests he is out of his depth here. With the world No.1 cruising through his matches in minimal games, there’s little to suggest this will be a long battle.
