Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Tokyo match.
Carlos Alcaraz continues an extraordinary winning run and opens his campaign in Tokyo, where he has never previously competed. The Spaniard arrives as world No. 1 and the outright favourite. Sebastián Báez has been handed a very tough draw and will need to be at his absolute best.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz is in phenomenal form: 38 wins in his last 40 matches and only two defeats — to Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz. His game has become more consistent; he no longer switches off in early rounds and dispatches underdogs without unnecessary fuss. On hard courts Carlos won back-to-back titles in Cincinnati and at the US Open, and across those 13 matches he dropped a set only three times. The Spaniard has faced Sebastián Báez twice and won both matches in straight sets.
Sebastián Báez
Báez is having an uneven season, with an overall 23-22 record, and on hard courts he has only two wins against seven defeats. Since the start of April he has posted a poor run of 10 defeats in 14 matches across all surfaces. Sebastián tends to be competitive mainly on clay, where his style is more effective. On faster courts Báez struggles; in rallies he lacks the pace and bite to beat players of Carlos Alcaraz’s calibre.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastián Báez Prediction
The gulf in class and current form looks substantial. Sebastián Báez is unlikely to offer much resistance, especially on hard courts. Carlos Alcaraz has every chance to progress quickly and comfortably into the second round.
