Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Tokyo match.
Carlos Alcaraz has arrived in Tokyo as the world No. 1 and the champion of the most recent Grand Slam. Despite a minor ankle issue, the player came through the opening round with authority. Zizou Bergs will try to prove that his victory over Alejandro Tabilo was no fluke and to move beyond his second match at a tournament for the first time in three months.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz is impressing with his form: 39 wins in his last 41 matches, with defeats to Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon and Taylor Fritz at the Laver Cup. In Tokyo, he opened with a routine 6:4, 6:2 win over Sebastián Báez, despite an ankle knock, showing solidity and authority on return. Over the past year Carlos has won 59 of 65 matches against opponents outside the ATP top 10, and on hard courts his aggression and speed allow him to dominate. On this surface he wins 77% of points behind his first serve and averages seven aces per match.
Zizou Bergs
Bergs has posted modest results this season: 27 wins from 52 matches and a career-high No. 45 in the ATP Rankings. In the Tokyo first round he edged Alejandro Tabilo (1:6, 7:6, 7:6), but the win owed much to the Chilean’s fatigue after 13 matches in 17 days. The Belgian relies on a big serve, but from the baseline he looks heavy-legged, being 10kg heavier than Carlos Alcaraz at the same 6ft 1in height, which limits his mobility. Against top-5 opposition he has played only once — a straight-sets defeat to Andrey Rublev (0:2) in Rotterdam 2024. Since mid-June, across 10 consecutive tournaments, Zizou has not gone beyond his second match, progressing only once via a walkover from Jack Draper at the US Open.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Zizou Bergs Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz is at the peak of his form and dominates on hard courts, where his speed and return neutralise Zizou Bergs’ serve. The Belgian, despite the win over a weary Alejandro Tabilo, remains inconsistent and vulnerable on the baseline, where Alcaraz will apply pressure just as he did against Sebastián Báez. We expect a comfortable win for the Spaniard.
