Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
Casper Ruud has a golden opportunity to claim another clay-court Masters title. With key contenders already knocked out, the draw has opened up considerably, and the Norwegian arrives in Madrid in excellent physical form. Daniil Medvedev, in contrast, enters this stage with little momentum; clay remains his weakest surface, and he struggled even against opponents considered well below Casper Ruud’s level.
Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud has built his career on clay, taking 11 of his 12 titles on this surface. At this season’s clay-court Masters events, he has won six of his last eight matches, each by a margin of at least four games. In Madrid, he defeated Sebastian Korda (6:3, 6:3) and Taylor Fritz (7:5, 6:4), displaying a solid first serve throughout. He landed 68% of his first serves and won 73% of those points.
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev is far more comfortable on hard courts. Since the start of 2023, he has won 26 of 35 matches on clay, but his record against top-20 opposition on this surface remains underwhelming, with just one victory in his last six such encounters. His ongoing issues with double faults persist—this season, he ranks seventh overall with 85. In Madrid, the Russian got past Francisco Cerúndolo and needed three sets to overcome Brandon Nakashima, currently ranked 32nd in the world. So far in the tournament, Medvedev has averaged a 64% first-serve percentage and has already committed 28 unforced errors.
Casper Ruud vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Casper Ruud plays deeper in the court, manages rallies more effectively, and tends to come out on top in longer exchanges. The two have never faced each other on clay, but the Norwegian has grown increasingly confident on the surface. Given Medvedev’s consistent struggles against elite clay-court specialists, it's difficult to see him matching Ruud’s current level.
