Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
José Mourinho’s return to Stamford Bridge will be one of the headline stories of the upcoming Champions League matchday. Chelsea and Benfica have struggled for results of late, and the head-to-head will likely extend the mini slump for one of the sides.
Chelsea
At the weekend, Chelsea fell apart defensively after Trevoh Chalobah was sent off, losing 3:1 to a side in the middle of the English Premier League standings, Brighton & Hove Albion. Without Cole Palmer the attack lost its spark: the 1.81 xG and 13 shots did not translate into the necessary scoring chances. On Tuesday the hosts are likely to deploy Enzo Fernández again in the attacking midfield three; the Argentine creates well but does not drift wide to provide extra incision in the way the player does. In Munich against Bayern Munich (a 3:1 defeat), Chelsea generated only 0.73 xG.
Benfica
Benfica’s debut in the Champions League group phase brought a disastrous 2:3 defeat to Qarabağ. The team led by two at Estádio da Luz by the 16th minute, but by full-time the favourites had managed only three shots on target, and that attacking bluntness led to the dismissal of Bruno Lage. Since José Mourinho took charge, the team have taken seven points from three Primeira Liga matches, conceding only two goals across 270 minutes. Benfica have switched to a 4-2-3-1, a system José Mourinho favours, with the holding midfielders in the double pivot scarcely involved in build-up play.
Chelsea vs Benfica Prediction
Last summer Chelsea and Benfica met in the FIFA Club World Cup knockout round, and in normal time the sides did not clear over 2.5 goals (it finished 4:1 after extra-time). José Mourinho’s return to London carries particular significance, so Benfica are likely to focus on control and restrict the home side’s chance creation.
