Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the US Open match.
Two Australians who know each other well by style and approach meet in the opening round. But they stand at very different levels: Alex de Minaur is a top-15 ATP player with extensive hard-court pedigree, while Christopher O’Connell is a solid competitor, rarely favoured against opponents of this calibre. The intrigue lies in their familiarity with each other’s weaknesses — though the gulf in class is clear.
Christopher O’Connell
Now established inside the world’s top 80, O’Connell plays a smart, structured game built on a reliable first serve and patience in long rallies. Form-wise, he has just three wins from his last 10 matches, often coming up short against top-tier opponents. Christopher is comfortable on hard courts but lacks consistent aggression and struggles on second serve. His strengths are defensive skills and the ability to drag opponents into long games — but that’s exactly where de Minaur traditionally excels.
Alex de Minaur
De Minaur is in the best spell of his career. This season he has beaten several top-10 players, consolidated his ranking and arrived at the US Open in top form. His style — pace, exceptional returning and resilient defence even against big servers — makes him dangerous in any draw. Across his last 10 matches he boasts eight wins, including notable runs at Masters events. Within all-Aussie match-ups, Alex tends to hold a mental edge as well as superior quality. On hard courts, his relentless tempo and constant pressure on return are likely to be decisive against O’Connell.
Christopher O’Connell vs Alex de Minaur Prediction
O’Connell could nick a set if his first-serve percentage is high and he drags rallies into extended battles. He even beat de Minaur once back in 2016 — proof that he won’t fold without resistance. But in present form, de Minaur is quicker, steadier, and more composed in big moments. The favourite should progress, though expect a competitive contest.
