Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Water Polo World Championship match.
Croatia have been a dominant force in world water polo, finishing on the podium in eight of the last ten World Championships since 2007. They kicked off the current tournament in ruthless fashion, but a tougher test awaits in Montenegro — a side that already caused a minor upset by defeating Greece in their opening match.
Croatia
Currently ranked No. 1 in the world, Croatia head into this fixture as strong favourites. They are the reigning world champions, having edged out Italy in a dramatic penalty shootout in last year’s final (15:13), and they finished that campaign with a staggering +44 goal differential. Their 25:6 demolition of China in the opening round showed their attacking firepower, though it’s worth noting that the Chinese managed to stay competitive for a brief stretch in the third quarter. Historically, however, Croatia have found it tough against Montenegro — the Montenegrins have covered the +3.5 handicap in 11 of their last 12 meetings.
Montenegro
Eighth in the world rankings, Montenegro are proving to be dark horses at this tournament. They stunned Greece 10:9 in their opening match and have made a habit of pushing elite teams to the limit. Since February 2024, they’ve covered the +3.5 spread in 19 of their last 24 matches. Notably, they’ve claimed scalps over the USA, Serbia, France, and now Greece — all of whom are ranked in the global top 10.
Croatia vs Montenegro Prediction
While Croatia remain favourites — not just for this match but for the tournament overall — Montenegro are unlikely to be blown away. They’re resilient, disciplined, and capable of holding their own against the very best. Expect a close contest, with Croatia edging it but not by a wide margin.
