Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UEFA Nations League match.
The intense competition in the elite division of the Nations League has painted contrasting pictures for the teams of Croatia and Scotland. The 2022 World Cup bronze medalists have secured three points from their two September fixtures, while the Scottish side have stumbled twice, placing them at the bottom of Group 1.
Croatia
In their away game against Portugal (1:2), Croatia faltered early, conceding twice by the 34th minute. However, they showed resilience in attack thereafter (0.37 xG vs 0.34 xG in the second half). Back home against Poland (1:0), they employed an unconventional 3-3-3-1 formation, which allowed them to dominate the game by crowding the midfield (0.84 xG with 23 shots and 59% possession). It’s likely that Croatia will stick to this tactical setup in October.
Scotland
Scotland’s underwhelming showing at Euro 2024 further highlighted a worrying trend: they struggle against top-tier nations. Against both Poland (2:3) and Portugal (1:2), the Scottish side conceded 3.96 xGA over 90 minutes, with glaring shot disparities in Lisbon (5-27 in shots, 2-8 on target). It’s apparent that the coaching staff’s setup will undergo no radical changes — instead, they will rely on the standout qualities of their leaders, with Scott McTominay, Andrew Robertson, and Lyndon Dykes focusing on aerial plays.
Croatia vs Scotland Prediction
Back in the Euro 2020 group stage, Croatia beat Scotland with two goals after the 60th minute (3:1). The Scottish side will likely take the initiative once again at home — they possess the strength and motivation to secure a win over the group underdogs.
