Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the English Premier League match.
Southampton have suffered their first defeat under Ivan Juric, but their style of play has undoubtedly become more vibrant. Securing at least a point against a Crystal Palace side that isn't far off seems feasible.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace failed to find the net in their last match. Their formidable opponent was Bournemouth, who have defeated both Manchester clubs in the past two months. The trio of their forwards – Evanilson Barbosa, Justin Kluivert, and Antoine Semenyo – have scored 15 goals, nearly matching Crystal Palace's entire tally of 18. They managed to contain them mainly because Bournemouth squandered three-quarters of their attempts (4 on target from 18 shots), while Crystal Palace only had 10 shots, with just three reaching Kepa Arrizabalaga. The London side are struggling with their finishing, with their expected goals significantly exceeding actual goals by 10.42.
Southampton
Southampton face an even worse challenge with finishing, sitting at the bottom of the Premier League (-11.14 xGDiff). Nonetheless, on Boxing Day, they put up a strong showing despite losing at home to West Ham United (0:1). Overall, they attempted more shots, both towards goal (18–16) and on target (5–2). However, they failed to convert any of their four clear-cut chances (1.40 xG), whereas West Ham United capitalised on one of their two. This was certainly better than their outing at Fulham in the 17th round, where they recorded just 0.26 xG.
Crystal Palace vs Southampton Prediction
Both clubs concede frequently (1.4 per game for Crystal Palace and 2.1 for Southampton), but neither are clinical in front of goal. This lack of decisive attacking raises the likelihood of a total under.
