Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the NHL match.
After two heavy defeats in Edmonton with a combined scoreline of 2:10, the Dallas Stars are now one loss away from elimination. Another defeat would see them become the first team ever to reach three consecutive Conference Finals without making a single Stanley Cup Final appearance. Back on home ice in Texas, the squad will be desperate to avoid that fate.
Dallas Stars
The series has been more competitive than the raw scores suggest. At 5-on-5, the Dallas Stars lead all four Conference Finalists in the ratio of Expected Goals created versus conceded (xG) with a 55% share. Yet on the scoreboard, they trail significantly in actual goals scored and conceded (3:9). Special teams play—a decisive factor in Game 4—has been considerably more effective at home. At American Airlines Center, their power play success rate stands at 42.9%, compared to just 17.4% on the road.
Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers could have faced a far sterner challenge in the last game if not for Leon Draisaitl’s early power play goal. The opposition dominated the opening period, and the Edmonton Oilers were somewhat fortunate to come away with the victory. They conceded 33 shot attempts, 16 of which were on target, and trailed significantly in scoring chances (10:24), high-danger opportunities (3:6), and 2.29 xGA. Had the Stars found the net first, the outcome may have been very different. Adding to the Oilers’ concerns, key forward Zach Hyman (5+6), pivotal in front of goal and known for his physical presence, sustained an injury.
Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction
Playoff hockey often comes down to the basics—scoring first can dictate the rhythm of the game. That’s precisely the approach the Dallas Stars will take into Game 5. This postseason, they’ve won all three games in which they opened the scoring. And they possess the attacking depth to strike early again: Mikko Rantanen has yet to make a significant impact, Jason Robertson has ended his scoring drought and appears to have regained his shooting touch, while Matthew Duchene, Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston continue to pose a threat going forward. We’re backing two outcomes—the hosts to open the scoring and take the win.
