Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Monte Carlo match.
Daniil Medvedev continues his campaign on the familiar clay courts of Monte Carlo, where he feels at home – quite literally, as he resides in Monaco. After a difficult start to the season, the Russian has shown signs of improvement, but playing a third consecutive match in quick succession on this physically demanding surface could take its toll. Meanwhile, Alex de Minaur views the tournament as a chance to build on his recent progress on clay and replicate last year's impressive form.
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev emerged victorious from two consecutive three-set encounters, defeating both Karen Khachanov and Alexandre Müller. In both cases, he had to elevate his game after slow starts, spending over five and a half hours on court combined. He is no stranger to extended battles – three of his last five matches have gone the distance, with the total number of games exceeding 28 each time. Despite leading the head-to-head 7-3 against Alex de Minaur, Medvedev did lose to the Australian on clay at Roland-Garros last year.
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur has made considerable strides on clay in 2024, winning 11 of his 16 matches on the surface. He came through his Monte Carlo opener after dropping the first set to Jakub Menšík, before finding his rhythm and sealing a comfortable win. Crucially, he spent less than two hours on court and should be well-rested, in stark contrast to a fatigued Daniil Medvedev. Although de Minaur underperformed during the hard-court Masters events in the United States, he has demonstrated his ability on slower surfaces – reaching the quarter-finals at Roland-Garros last year and continuing that form here in Monte Carlo.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Prediction
Having already endured two physically taxing matches, Daniil Medvedev may struggle to handle Alex de Minaur’s relentless tempo, particularly on clay. The Australian has previously beaten Medvedev on this surface and enters the match in fresher condition. Based on these factors, we back a win for Alex de Minaur.
