Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Monte Carlo match.
Daniil Medvedev began his Monte Carlo campaign with a vital win, avenging last year’s defeat to Karen Khachanov. The match stretched to three sets and featured a total of 17 service breaks between the two players. Alexandre Muller advanced past world number 63 Hugo Karabelli in straight sets, but his past performances against Daniil Medvedev suggest that even home support is unlikely to make a significant difference.
Daniil Medvedev
Over the course of his career, Daniil Medvedev has won 65% of his matches on clay (89 wins and 49 losses), although it’s not regarded as his preferred surface. Against Karen Khachanov, he produced high-quality passing shots and drop shots, won 73% of points behind his first serve, and hit four aces throughout the match. He holds a 2-0 head-to-head record over Alexandre Muller, including a four-set victory at Wimbledon last year and a commanding win at the Saint-Rémy Challenger in 2016, where he prevailed (6:0, 6:0).
Alexandre Muller
Alexandre Muller has lost 13 of his 15 matches against top-20 opposition. On clay this season, 75% of his matches have ended in straight sets (6 out of 8). Despite reaching the final in Rio, his recent results point to a dip in form: he suffered a heavy loss to Francisco Cerúndolo in Miami and was then beaten by Kamil Majchrzak, who is ranked outside the top 100. Even in the match against Hugo Karabelli, the French player looked far from convincing, converting only half of his break points and committing 29 unforced errors.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexandre Muller Prediction
It seems unlikely that Alexandre Muller will have the endurance to match Daniil Medvedev over the course of a match. The Russian has previously made a strong impression in Monte Carlo, reaching the semi-finals in 2019 and the quarter-finals in 2023. Given Daniil Medvedev’s past dominance in this matchup, backing him to cover a -1.5 game handicap looks like the logical choice.
