Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Monte Carlo match.
Daniil Medvedev has fallen out of the ATP top 10 for the first time since early 2023 and arrives in Monte Carlo ranked 11th in the world. Last season on clay, he featured in just 16 matches, winning 11. In contrast, Karen Khachanov made a strong impression in Monte Carlo during the 2024 season, advancing to the quarter-finals and eliminating Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16.
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev's 2025 season has been disappointing. He has landed only 60% of his first serves and is averaging 3.42 double faults per match. After a surprising straight-sets defeat to Jaume Munar in Miami (2:6, 3:6), he slipped to 11th in the standings. Clay has never suited Daniil Medvedev’s game — his only significant title on the surface came in Rome in 2023 — and he was eliminated in Monte Carlo at the round of 16 stage last year. His serve remains a vulnerability: an average of just seven aces per match and 11 break points faced in his most recent appearance are cause for concern.
Karen Khachanov
Karen Khachanov approaches this match with a psychological advantage, having beaten Daniil Medvedev at this same tournament last year (6:3, 7:5). His 2024 clay-court form has been strong, recording eight wins in 12 matches. In 2025, while he is yet to defeat a top-20 opponent in four attempts, three of those matches went the distance. His run to the quarter-finals in Monte Carlo in 2024 ended in defeat to eventual champion Stefanos Tsitsipas (4:6, 2:6).
Daniil Medvedev vs Karen Khachanov Prediction
On clay, Karen Khachanov has a realistic opportunity to repeat last year's result. Daniil Medvedev continues to underperform on slower surfaces, with persistent issues around his serve and overall form in 2025. Karen Khachanov has already shown he can beat him in Monte Carlo and remains consistent on clay. As such, we are backing a handicap bet in favour of Karen Khachanov.
