Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Washington match.
Daniil Medvedev will have the chance to avenge his recent loss to Reilly Opelka in ’s-Hertogenbosch. This time, the contest takes place on American hard courts — a surface where the Russian typically excels.
Daniil Medvedev
Since 2023, Daniil Medvedev has won 35 of his 44 matches on hard courts in the US, a run that includes a title at the Miami Open and runner-up finishes at both the US Open and Indian Wells. Following an early elimination from Wimbledon, he’s had ample time to recover and prepare for this key ATP 500 event in Washington. Medvedev has previously demonstrated superiority over Reilly Opelka on this surface, most notably in the final of the Toronto Masters (6:4, 6:3).
Reilly Opelka
Although Reilly Opelka got the better of Daniil Medvedev in their latest meeting on grass, his track record against top 20 opponents on hard courts has been disappointing: 11 defeats in 14 matches since August 2021. Even in his tournament opener against Patrick Kypson, the American looked unconvincing, particularly on his first serve, landing just 56% of them. In 2025, Opelka has also been beaten on hard courts by players ranked outside the top 30, including Hugo Gaston, Roman Safiullin, and Brandon Nakashima.
Daniil Medvedev vs Reilly Opelka Prediction
Daniil Medvedev remains a formidable presence on hard courts, whereas Reilly Opelka often struggles against elite competition, especially when his serve fails to deliver. The Russian is well poised to exact revenge and cover the -2.5 games handicap.
