Adam Williams presents his prediction for the NBA match.
Less than 24 hours after a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves (139:140), the Denver Nuggets must regroup to host the San Antonio Spurs — a side on a five-game skid but one that already shocked the Nuggets at Ball Arena earlier this season.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have been involved in a string of high-scoring games lately. Depending on the opponent, either their offence turns up the heat, or their defence springs a leak. The result? Eight overs in their last 10 outings against the spread total. That trend extends to back-to-back games as well: the Nuggets have gone over in 10 of 15 such matchups this season, beating the line by an average of 7.5 points. Don’t expect Nikola Jokic to rest either — even after a historic 60-point triple-double last night. Earlier this season, he logged 43 minutes in a similar back-to-back setup — also against the Spurs.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs, meanwhile, managed to beat the Nuggets in Colorado back in January. But things have gone downhill since losing Victor Wembanyama. As expected, the Spurs’ defence has crumbled without him — they rank second-to-last in the league for defensive rating since the All-Star break, allowing 122.1 points per 100 possessions. Wemby’s absence has left a gaping hole in the paint, and the Spurs simply can’t keep teams out.
Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction
In their last two back-to-backs at home, the Denver Nuggets have shipped 129 to the Chicago Bulls and 126 to the Washington Wizards. So why shouldn’t the Spurs — despite their struggles — hit similar numbers? These teams previously played high-scoring games in January, with projections around 236+. However, even with the San Antonio Spurs’ defence worsening, this game is expected to have fewer points, at 228.5. This suggests the potential for a higher-scoring game than anticipated.
