Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers match.
Ecuador currently sit two points and two places above Brazil in the standings, yet they are still viewed as underdogs heading into this fixture. The match will be played at Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo in Guayaquil, just a few dozen kilometres from the Pacific coast. This removes the high-altitude factor that often benefits Ecuador in home games. It’s possible this location was chosen to avoid putting Brazil, a nation without comparable elevation, at a disadvantage.
Ecuador
Regardless, being second in the standings after 14 matches — with only four fixtures remaining — underlines the strength of this squad. Ecuador rely on collective organisation rather than individual brilliance. While a few players are based in Europe, none are considered world-class. Moisés Caicedo may carry a €90 million valuation, but that figure owes much to market forces in the English Premier League. The Chelsea midfielder plays a holding role and does not contribute directly to the attack — a fact reflected in Ecuador’s modest goal return of just 13, placing them sixth or seventh in that regard. Defensively, however, Ecuador have conceded only five goals — the fewest of any side in the competition. Their closest challengers, Argentina, have allowed eight.
Brazil
Brazil, meanwhile, suffered a heavy 0:4 defeat to Argentina in their most recent outing. This match marks a new era, as Carlo Ancelotti officially took charge on 26 May. Although the Italian boasts extensive club-level experience, this is his first appointment with a national team, and it remains to be seen how smoothly the transition will go. Some level of adaptation is to be expected. He has already made notable changes to the squad, giving it a fresher look. Several players who featured in the defeat to Argentina — including Murillo Santiago, Joelinton Cassio, and Rodrygo Silva de Goes — have not been selected. However, Vinícius Júnior, Raphael Belloli, and Alisson Becker remain part of the squad.
Ecuador vs Brazil Prediction
Given the experimental nature of the new-look Brazil squad, the hosts should at least be capable of avoiding defeat — just as they managed in home qualifiers against Brazil during the last two World Cup cycles. The tip here is a double chance on Ecuador.
