Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA Doha match.
Ekaterina Alexandrova pulled off the biggest upset of the tournament by knocking out world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. Now, she must prove that performance was no fluke as she faces Elise Mertens. The Belgian traditionally starts seasons well—she has already claimed a title in Singapore—but in Doha, she has only gone beyond the last 16 once in the past six years.
Ekaterina Alexandrova
The world No. 26 has an impressive record against top-50 opponents, winning five of her last eight matches (63%). Alexandrova won the title in Linz earlier this year and produced a stunning comeback against Aryna Sabalenka, winning 3:6, 6:3, 7:6. Against the world No. 1, she looked confident, winning 67% of her first-serve points, saving four of eight break points, and striking 27 winners.
Elise Mertens
Mertens has already secured a title in Singapore this year, but her record against top players raises some doubts. She lost to Jessica Pegula at the Australian Open and suffered an unexpected defeat against McCartney Kessler in Hobart. In Doha, Mertens comfortably defeated Clara Tauson (6:0, retirement) and Cristina Bucșa (6:2, 6:3), but neither win is particularly telling. Tauson was forced to withdraw, while Bucșa is outside the top 100. Notably, in five of her last six defeats since late 2024, Mertens’ opponents have won at least 13 games.
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Elise Mertens Prediction
Alexandrova is in outstanding form and full of confidence after her win over Sabalenka. The Russian is dominating from the baseline, serving aggressively, and not shying away from high-risk play. Mertens is a solid opponent, but she struggles against powerful, attacking players. Given Alexandrova’s momentum, we’re backing her to take the win.
