Adam Williams presents his prediction for the 2024 World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup match.
Fiji and Japan's national teams confidently advanced to the final, albeit with varying degrees of scoring, as most analysts had predicted. This will be a closely contested match, as the skill levels of the players are quite similar.
Fiji
Fiji managed three tries in their match against the USA (22:3). Number eight Elia Canakaivata scored before the break and then added a second try in the second half. The third try came while they were down a man for ten minutes after hooker Tevita Ikanivere was sent off. Scrum-half Frank Lomani scored the final try. Notably, Fiji only won six out of nine scrums.
Japan
The match between Japan and Samoa was much more spectacular. A total of 10 tries were scored: 7 by Japan and 3 by Samoa. After Japan's fifth try early in the second half, the gap remained at 22 points. In attack, Japan significantly outperformed their opponents in hand-carries (139-75), while they narrowly edged out Samoa in line breaks (9-8). Additionally, this was their highest-scoring match (76 points) with the largest margin (22 points) in their last six encounters.
Fiji vs Japan prediction
Fiji are considered the favourites for the final. In the World Rugby rankings, they are 10th, while Japan are 13th. In the Pacific Nations Cup, the teams have faced each other twice: Fiji won the 2015 semifinal (27:22), and Japan triumphed in the 2019 final (34:21). Their most recent encounter was a year ago, before the World Cup, and Fiji emerged victorious (35:12). This official tournament will have a tighter competition than usual, so we do not expect a large margin.
