Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UEFA Nations League match.
Memories of their Euro last-16 match are still fresh, where France only took the lead in the 85th minute. In the first round of the Nations League, their missed opportunities came back to haunt them. Belgium could capitalise on this.
France
The match at the Parc des Princes began magnificently and ended disastrously for France. Bradley Barcola took advantage of a sluggish Giovanni Di Lorenzo and scored within just 13 seconds of the game! However, Italy's goals were even more spectacular—a shot from Federico Dimarco that was unstoppable at the end of the first half and two swift attacks in the second half. No matter how much the French side besieged the goal in the final minutes, they couldn't salvage the game. Judging by the statistics, they didn’t deserve more than a single goal, with 1.05 xG and 3 shots on target. This is reminiscent of their Euro match against Belgium, where they had nearly identical stats: 1.06 xG and 2 shots on target, and the only goal came from an own goal back then.
Belgium
Euro 2024 also left Belgian fans with less-than-pleasant memories. However, they enjoyed a strong start in the first round of the Nations League against Israel. Their opponents have just been promoted to the top division and clearly can't cope with the high level of this group. The Belgian side increased the pressure as the match progressed. Of 25 shots, 16 came in the second half (with 6 on target out of 8). Belgium's xG was 3.61, and they could have scored a fourth goal, but Loïs Openda missed a penalty, hitting the goalkeeper.
France - Belgium Prediction
France should be wary of Belgium. They know how to defend, conceding only two goals in four matches at the Euros. They also have occasional issues with finishing. Predicting the outcome here is difficult since both teams often play evenly in head-to-head encounters. For instance, before the 1:0 match at the last Euros, France won 3:2 in the 2020/21 Nations League finals, and in the 2018 World Cup semi-finals in Russia, it was once again 1:0. We believe that taking a total under bet is necessary because the French coaching staff should learn from their match against Italy, but they are unlikely to score many themselves.
