Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Roland Garros match.
Frances Tiafoe enters the Roland Garros draw as the favourite, though his clay-court game remains far from refined. His opponent, the experienced Pablo Carreño Busta, is finding rhythm again after a long injury lay-off. The Spaniard is a two-time Roland Garros quarter-finalist and has shown grit on the surface this season, pushing every match to its limits.
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe has had a challenging clay-court campaign. Following the hard-court season, he has struggled to find consistency—despite lifting the trophy in Houston, Tiafoe has failed to make it past the third round at any major tournament. His primary concern is his first serve: since March, he has landed just 55% of them. In the first round, Tiafoe overcame world No. 72, Roman Safiullin, but fell well behind in the ace count (9:20).
Pablo Carreño Busta
Pablo Carreño Busta, returning from a lengthy rehab, looked sharp in his opener against Francisco Comesaña. He outperformed the young Argentine in all key areas, recording fewer unforced errors (33:55) and producing more winners (40). His first serve was a weapon—66% success rate with 72% of points won behind it. On clay this year, Pablo Carreño Busta has won 7 of his 15 matches, and in 13 of those he has managed to win at least one set.
Frances Tiafoe vs Pablo Carreño Busta Prediction
While Frances Tiafoe is justifiably the favourite, overlooking Pablo Carreño Busta on clay would be unwise. This contest promises to be closely fought, and Pablo Carreño Busta has every chance of claiming at least a set. Even if he loses in straight sets, the deficit is unlikely to be wide. The +5.5 handicap looks a strong play.
