Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Roland Garros match.
Both Americans have made solid starts to their Roland Garros campaigns, but deep runs in Paris have been rare for each. For Tiafoe, this is just his second third-round appearance in a decade, while Korda is still clawing his way back toward the top 20, alternating strong performances with inconsistent patches.
Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe has yet to drop a set in Paris, cruising past Roman Safiullin and Pablo Carreño Busta. However, the quality of opposition leaves some questions — Safiullin isn’t a clay-court threat, and Carreño Busta is still working his way back from injury. Tiafoe’s first-serve numbers are solid but not dominant (60% in-play average), and his record at this stage of Slams is shaky — four losses in his last six third-round appearances. He’s also lost his last three matches against Korda.
Sebastian Korda
Korda has looked sharp so far, defeating world No. 45 Luciano Darderi in four sets (6:2, 4:6, 6:3, 6:2) and world No. 161 Jenson Brooksby (6:1, 6:2, 7:6) in straight sets. Across those two matches, he’s fired 10 aces to just 3 double faults and kept a clean, efficient game. Like Tiafoe, his serve isn’t overwhelming (61% first serve in, 67% points won on it), but his composure and tactical discipline have stood out. That said, his clay form in 2025 has been patchy — just 5 wins in 9 matches. Still, he has the mental edge, having won their last three encounters, albeit all on hard courts.
Frances Tiafoe vs Sebastian Korda Prediction
Their only previous meeting on clay went Tiafoe’s way, which adds intrigue to the mix. Both players have vulnerabilities, which sets the stage for a drawn-out battle.
