Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Monte Carlo match.
Carlos Alcaraz returns to the Monte Carlo court for the first time in three years. Back in 2021, Carlos Alcaraz suffered a surprise defeat to Sebastian Korda and has not featured on the Côte d'Azur since. After a frustrating campaign in Miami, where he was comfortably beaten by David Goffin, and a failed title defence in Indian Wells, the pressure is mounting on Carlos Alcaraz to rediscover his form and build momentum on clay.
Francisco Cerúndolo
Francisco Cerúndolo has made a strong start to the tournament and looks capable of testing the higher-ranked opponent. He opened his campaign with a dominant 6:0, 6:3 win over Fabio Fognini, winning 81% of points behind his first serve. Francisco has split sets in four of his last six clay-court matches. Remarkably, he has never been eliminated from Monte Carlo without winning at least one set, despite entering 75% of his matches here as the underdog.
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz continues to rank among the top performers on clay. Last season, he posted a commanding 92% win rate on the surface, claiming 12 victories from 13 matches — a run that included triumphs at Roland Garros and in the Olympic final. However, his most recent showing against David Goffin in Miami was far from convincing — he won just 65% of points on his first serve and lost in three sets (7:5, 4:6, 3:6). Alcaraz often finds himself in physically demanding clay-court duels, with three of his last five matches on the surface featuring at least one tie-break.
Francisco Cerúndolo vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz is not currently performing at his best, while Francisco Cerúndolo appears to have found his rhythm early in the clay season and poses a genuine threat. These two have previously met three times, with Alcaraz leading the head-to-head 2:1. Notably, in two of those contests, Cerúndolo kept the scoreline tight, never losing by more than five games. Given those trends, backing Francisco Cerúndolo to stay within the +4.5 game margin looks a sensible play.
