Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
Andrey Rublev begins his campaign in Madrid with the aim of defending his title and maintaining crucial ranking points. Although his performances at the start of the season have been somewhat inconsistent, the clay court stretch historically plays to his strengths. Across the net stands the experienced Gaël Monfils, now in the later stages of his career. While the Frenchman still has the capacity to challenge high-level opponents, his record against top-10 players on clay is far from encouraging.
Gaël Monfils
Gaël Monfils has lost his last seven matches against top-10 opposition on clay, with five of those defeats coming in straight sets. His opening round in Madrid did little to inspire confidence: a three-set battle against world No. 353 Borna Gojo (1:6, 6:2, 6:4), included four double faults and a first-serve percentage of just 67%. These two players have met previously, with Monfils earning his sole victory back in 2018. Since then, Andrey Rublev has strung together three straight wins, including a recent meeting on clay in Monte Carlo three weeks ago.
Andrey Rublev
Since the beginning of 2024, Andrey Rublev has won 13 of 21 matches on clay. He has shown particular superiority against older players, winning seven of his last nine such encounters on this surface. This year, the Russian has already captured a Masters title on hard court in Doha and has competed in four matches on clay, advancing beyond the first round in both tournaments he entered.
Gaël Monfils vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
Andrey Rublev is in excellent form and is expected to make the most of both his physical edge and tactical consistency against the veteran Gaël Monfils. While the Frenchman's flair and experience should not be dismissed, sustaining a high level throughout the match appears unlikely. Having recently beaten Monfils in Monte Carlo, Rublev is well positioned to replicate that outcome here.
