Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Serie A match.
Both Genoa and Lecce have undergone managerial changes this season, yet both clubs remain above the relegation zone. This encounter in Genoa is unlikely to be a possession-heavy affair, as both teams thrive in counter-attacking football rather than controlling the game.
Genoa
Despite clear improvements under Patrick Vieira, Genoa’s form has dipped, managing just one win in their last six Serie A matches. Their main issue has been poor finishing, scoring only six goals from 7.05 xG in that period. However, their defensive solidity remains intact, conceding just 4.90 xGA, a record bettered by only three teams in the league. Five of their last five matches have gone under 2.5 goals, and Genoa also boast the lowest goal average in Serie A (2.2 per game).
Lecce
Before last week’s 2:3 defeat to AC Milan, Lecce had played four consecutive low-scoring matches, featuring two or fewer goals. The loss to Milan marked their first goals since late January, as they had failed to score in four straight games against Bologna, Monza (both 0:0), Udinese, and Fiorentina (both 0:1). Lecce also rank among the worst sides in terms of chance conversion, underperforming their xG by over seven goals.
Genoa vs Lecce Prediction
The reverse fixture in January ended in a dull 0:0 draw, and the trend towards low-scoring matches should continue in Genoa. Both teams struggle in front of goal but remain relatively solid at the back.
