Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UEFA Nations League match.
Germany, as the host nation of the UEFA Nations League Final Four, now face the prospect of playing for third place—an outcome the team would have been keen to avoid. France also missed out in their semi-final and will now contest the bronze medal match.
Germany
Both sides showed lapses in concentration during key stretches of their respective semi-finals, allowing their opponents extended periods of control. Germany faltered in the final 30 minutes of their match, while France struggled between the 20th and 55th minutes. During these vulnerable phases, Germany surrendered a narrow advantage and ultimately suffered elimination, while France conceded four goals. Over the full 90 minutes, Portugal and Spain created chances worth nearly three goals apiece, with expected goals of 2.92 and 2.91 respectively.
France
On balance, France delivered the more convincing display. They remained engaged throughout the match. Spain were bailed out early on by their goalkeeper, who made five first-half saves, while France also hit the woodwork twice. The French side registered 24 shots, with nine on target. In most scenarios, scoring four goals would be sufficient to secure victory.
Germany vs France Prediction
Germany showed flashes of quality but lacked consistency, even before Portugal mounted their comeback. They managed only nine attempts and recorded a modest 1.11 xG—well below the 2.74 xG posted by France. Based on these statistics, France appear to be strong favourites to secure third place, whether in regular time, extra time, or via a penalty shootout.
