Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Nations League match.
In the autumn, Greece came close to pulling off a major shock—they nearly overtook England in their Nations League group, which would have secured direct promotion to the elite division. They are the underdogs in this play-off against Scotland, but at home, the Greeks are more than capable of putting up a fight.
Greece
During the Nations League group stage, Greece conceded just four goals in six matches—all of them against England (2:1 and 0:3). Their stunning victory at Wembley caused a stir, with Benfica striker Vangelis Pavlidis scoring twice and making the most of his side’s modest 0.74 xG and just three shots on target. Against a defensive Finland (2:0), Greece deployed a disciplined 4-2-3-1 formation, not allowing a single shot on goal.
Scotland
Before the November international break, Scotland were struggling in their group campaign, collecting just one point from their first four matches. Their victories over Croatia (1:0) and Poland (2:1) were far from dominant—across both games, they produced just 2.36 xG over 180 minutes. The lack of a top-class striker has been a recurring issue, affecting both creativity and finishing. In March, Steve Clarke’s tactical approach is unlikely to change: Scotland will rely on aerial deliveries into the box while maintaining a deep defensive line.
Greece vs Scotland Prediction
At a packed Karaiskakis Stadium, Greece will enjoy more possession. Scotland are unlikely to take risks, meaning the battle for a place in League A will likely be decided in the return leg.
