Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Monte Carlo match.
Alex de Minaur has reached the quarter-finals in Monte Carlo for the second year running and remains in contention for his first clay-court title. The Australian has shown steady improvement with each round, comfortably defeating Daniil Medvedev (6:2, 6:2) and coming from behind to win against Tomas Machac (3:6, 6:0, 6:3). He now stands one win away from the semi-finals.
Grigor Dimitrov
For Grigor Dimitrov, this tournament already represents a notable achievement. The Bulgarian rarely progresses deep into clay-court Masters events, and further success seems unlikely. Since the start of the season, he has struggled with injuries and equipment adjustments. Clay has never been his preferred surface—his strongest recent performance on it being a quarter-final finish at Roland Garros last year. In Monte Carlo, Dimitrov has yet to face top-tier opposition. Only Alejandro Tabilo, ranked 32nd in the world, qualifies as a top-50 player. Even against that Chilean and the world number 288 Valentin Vacherot, he was pushed to three sets. His first serve has also been unreliable, landing just 60% of his first serves in play on average throughout the tournament.
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur looks the more composed and consistent of the two. The Australian has won 9 of his last 12 matches against top-20 players and is playing the best clay-court tennis of his career. In 2024, he made the quarter-finals at Roland Garros and has since confidently dispatched Daniil Medvedev, conceding only seven games across two matches. He spent just three hours on court in total against Tomas Machac and Daniil Medvedev, both of whom posed a greater threat than Grigor Dimitrov’s recent opponents.
Grigor Dimitrov vs Alex de Minaur Prediction
In terms of current form, Alex de Minaur has the advantage with his consistent baseline game. Grigor Dimitrov has shown a lack of rhythm, limited movement, and vulnerability on second serve. The Australian is expected to dictate the tempo, grind down his opponent in extended rallies, and systematically expose the Bulgarian’s shortcomings. Having already dealt with tougher challenges in Monte Carlo, Alex de Minaur is well-placed to overcome Grigor Dimitrov.
