Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Tokyo match.
Hamad Medjedovic
Medjedovic has delivered assured performances against strong opposition: nine wins in 14 matches against top 50 opponents over the past year. Against top 20 players he has three wins from six meetings. His style is similar to Holger Rune’s — aggressive, risk‑heavy tennis — but on hard courts Hamad averages 13 aces per match and wins 75% of points on serve.
Holger Rune
Rune has systemic issues, repeating the same errors across two seasons. In 2025 he has 11 defeats in his opening match of a tournament, which is too many for a top-15 player. In recent outings he lost to Pedro Martínez Portero and Francisco Cerúndolo, and at the Davis Cup and the Laver Cup Holger looked laboured both physically and mentally. His technique and return are superior to those of Hamad Medjedovic, but his first serve is weaker, at 71% on first‑serve points and five aces per match.
Hamad Medjedovic vs Holger Rune Prediction
Hamad Medjedovic competes well against elite opponents, and Holger Rune, in this sort of form, is unlikely to find this straightforward. The Dane is considered the favourite, but we do not expect a comfortable afternoon for him. We expect Hamad Medjedovic to win with a positive handicap.
