Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Paris Masters match.
Holger Rune aims to finish the season on a high, potentially replicating his triumph in Paris from two years ago, while Zverev seeks to solidify his ranking and demonstrate superiority on indoor hard courts. Their previous encounter in Montreal this summer resulted in a straight-sets victory for Zverev (6:3, 7:6).
Holger Rune
Rune, despite possessing remarkable skills and an aggressive playing style, has been inconsistent against top-10 opponents. This season, the Dane has managed only 2 wins out of his last 10 encounters with elite players. His serve often becomes a vulnerability, as seen in previous matches: against Arthur Cazaux (3:6, 6:3, 6:4), he had just a 55% first serve success rate, although this improved to 67% against Alex de Minaur (6:4, 4:6, 7:5). Additionally, having won only two of his last 10 semifinals, Rune shows signs of falling short in crucial matches. In Paris, despite his affinity for indoor courts, he will need exceptional resilience to withstand Zverev’s powerful attacks.
Alexander Zverev
Zverev, in contrast, exhibits consistently high-level play and enters the semifinal in top form. Ranked third in the ATP standings, the German has won five out of six matches against lower-ranked players at hard court Masters events this season, four of which were straight-sets victories. In his quarterfinal against Stefanos Tsitsipas (7:5, 6:4), Alexander reached 40 aces and maintained an impressive 70% first serve percentage, providing a significant advantage over Rune. Zverev's powerful and accurate first serve, along with solid baseline defence that forces errors, solidifies his dominance.
Holger Rune vs Alexander Zverev Prediction
Given Zverev’s stable and confident indoor performance, as well as his superior serving statistics and rally precision, he is the favourite. Rune's decline in pivotal moments suggests he might struggle against the in-form German. We suggest backing Zverev to win with a handicap.
