Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP London match.
Mackenzie McDonald is eight years older than Holger Rune and has played nearly four times as many matches on grass. Nevertheless, it is Holger Rune who comes into this encounter as the clear favourite. Anything short of a win for Rune would be considered a surprise, given the 89-place gap between them in the ATP rankings.
Holger Rune
Holger Rune opened his grass-court season with a straight-sets victory over lucky loser Christopher O'Connell (6:3, 6:4), needing just 1 hour and 17 minutes to advance. Rune finished the previous two grass campaigns with positive records of 3-2 and 8-2 respectively. The two players have never met on grass before — their previous meetings have all come on hard courts.
Mackenzie McDonald
The head-to-head between the pair stands at 1-1, though Mackenzie McDonald’s win deserves context — it came at Cincinnati 2023 when Holger Rune retired in the second set while trailing 6:4, 2:0. Their only completed match ended with a 7:5, 6:3 win for Rune at Indian Wells. This season at Queen’s Club, McDonald has already logged significant court time. Following his first-round victory over veteran Gaël Monfils (6:4, 6:4) in 1 hour and 25 minutes, the Dane also had to come through two qualifying rounds. In total, he has already spent exactly four hours on court.
Holger Rune vs Mackenzie McDonald Prediction
We’re confident in a win for the Dane, though we don’t foresee a one-sided result. A moderate handicap in favour of Holger Rune appears justified — his blend of talent, achievements and adaptability should be enough.
