Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Monte Carlo match.
Holger Rune has had ample time to prepare for the Monte Carlo tournament following a disappointing run in Miami and is aiming to replicate his success from two years ago. Nuno Borges, meanwhile, has struggled against top-tier opponents and faces a challenging debut at this event against the Danish prodigy.
Holger Rune
Holger Rune delivered a solid performance in Indian Wells before an early elimination in Miami, which gave him a chance to recover and transition to clay. He has a strong record in Monte Carlo, having reached the final in 2023 and the quarter-finals the previous year. The Dane has also been consistent against lower-ranked opponents, winning 11 of his last 16 such matches.
Nuno Borges
Nuno Borges showed poor form in Marrakech, going out in the second round after a straight-sets loss to Sergio Carballés Baena (4:6, 4:6). This season, the Portuguese player has progressed beyond the second round only twice—once in Doha when Ugo Humbert withdrew and once at a Challenger in Phoenix. His record against top-20 players is concerning: he has lost 8 of 11 encounters, including six in straight sets.
Holger Rune vs Nuno Borges Prediction
Nuno Borges often struggles to control rallies, especially at Masters level. Holger Rune, on the other hand, has proven his comfort on these courts, while Nuno Borges is still adjusting to his first appearance in the principality. They have faced off twice before, with Holger Rune winning both matches—a trend that is expected to continue. Backing Holger Rune to cover a -2.5 games handicap seems a solid choice.
