Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Bundesliga match.
In the first match of 2025 in the German championship, Borussia Dortmund put up strong competition against Bayer Leverkusen (2:3) despite numerous personnel issues. Away against Holstein Kiel, the team will seize the initiative, and they are expected to have several key players returning from injury.
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel ended December with a resounding victory over Augsburg (5:1), although it didn't significantly improve their standing in the league. A defeat to Freiburg (2:3) left the Kiel side in the penultimate position — they conceded just 0.63 xGA with five shots on target against a top-6 opponent. However, the Bundesliga newcomers have the worst defence by a margin in the tournament, with 41 goals conceded against an expected 32.44.
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund are experiencing a transitional season with a new coaching staff and varying success, although the team consistently creates chances (28.09 xG — fifth in the league). Against Bayer Leverkusen, Jamie Gittens and Serhou Guirassy each scored, both ranking in the top 15 Bundesliga scorers (13+4 combined). In December, Dortmund managed to end a poor away run by beating strong Wolfsburg (3:1), where they generated 2.65 xG.
Holstein Kiel vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Historically, in head-to-head encounters between Holstein Kiel and Borussia Dortmund, the Dortmund side have recorded two emphatic victories in the DFB-Pokal with an aggregate score of 9:0. The return of Waldemar Anton and Nico Schlotterbeck to Dortmund's lineup ensures a solid back line, making the team favourites to claim victory in Kiel.
