Adam Williams presents his prediction for the NBA match.
The series heads to Texas after consecutive home victories for the Golden State Warriors. The visitors staged a second-half comeback in Game 4 (109:106), with Jimmy Butler contributing 27 points to lead the turnaround. The Houston Rockets are now under significant pressure — the team is in a must-win situation.
Houston Rockets
This doesn’t appear to be a straightforward series. The younger core of the Houston Rockets has kept each game competitive and matched the physical, contact-heavy approach of the Golden State Warriors. For example, Draymond Green, who delivered the decisive defensive play in the final seconds, was on five fouls for nearly the last eight minutes — underlining just how close the Golden State Warriors were to slipping up. Jalen Green, for instance, erupted for 38 points in Game 2 at home. Across the next two games combined, however, he managed only 17 — this looks like a key opportunity for a bounce-back performance.
Golden State Warriors
Across the series, the Golden State Warriors have been inconsistent in finding a dependable offensive contributor. None of their leading players have delivered high-level performances in back-to-back games. There’s no guarantee that Jimmy Butler will replicate his impact from the last game. The same goes for Stephen Curry, who recorded only 17 points in 39 minutes and made just two three-pointers. During the regular season, the Warriors ranked 15th in offensive efficiency, averaging 115 points per 100 possessions. That figure has dropped to 109.5 in the playoffs.
Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction
Historically, finishing off a playoff series on the road as the underdog has proven to be a difficult challenge. Teams trailing 1:3 in a series but favoured at home have won 30 out of 40 such games — a 75% success rate — and covered the spread in 57.5% of them. When narrowing it down to first-round matchups, the win rate increases to 79%. In this particular series, the winning team has also covered the spread in three of the four games. Based on this trend, backing the Houston Rockets with a -4.5 handicap appears to offer strong value.
