Adam Williams presents his prediction for the Ascot Howden Graduation Chase (2m5f, 4yo+) horse racing event.
Jungle Boogie, at the age of 10, has only six starts. During his three years with Willie Mullins, he triumphed in all his starts. After transitioning to Henry De Bromhead, he raced three times in a single season, winning the New Year's Day Chase (Grade 3) on 1 January this year. In March, he was the last to finish in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The competition here is a bit easier but fairly even, so he doesn't have a significant edge over the field.
James Du Berlais represents Willie Mullins' stable. Last season, he performed moderately without victories, finishing second in the Topham Handicap Chase over the Grand National fences. Of his 26 starts, half were in France, where he won four times at Auteuil. In Ireland, he secured a solitary win in the Beginners Chase on 1 January last year. Perhaps we're overly optimistic, but we'll back him at 9/2 on bet365.
Fil Dor was expectedly victorious last time in the listed event at Thurles, where his rival was the mare Hazelhatch Lady, and before that secured second place in the Clonmel Oil Chase (Grade 2). Last season, when he began competing over fences, he didn't notch any wins but performed well in graded races, excluding his last start in the Champion Chase (Grade 1) at Punchestown, where he failed to finish. His previous start and the good ground should be advantageous for him.
Iroko was the favourite but lost his previous start at Haydock, coming second by half a length. He concluded last season as runner-up in the Mildmay Novices' Chase (Grade 1) at Aintree, following a fifth-place finish in the Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) at Cheltenham. A formidable competitor and a main contender according to punters.
Tahmuras finished fifth out of six in his season debut at Haydock, the same race where Iroko claimed second. Last season was rather favourable for him; he never finished worse than third, albeit with a hint of deception. In his first start, where he placed third, he faced only two rivals and was the favourite. He won the Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Aintree in late December. In this company, it won't be an easy ride for him.
Colonel Harry tried the 3m2f distance for the first time last outing, resulting in a lacklustre 11th out of 13. Prior to that, he began the season with a second place in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at 2m4f. Last season, he clinched victory in the William Hill Towton Novices' Chase (Grade 2), but his performance was less impressive at larger meetings. Returning to a familiar distance will benefit him.
Unexpected Party has been last in two grade 2 races this season, at Aintree and Cheltenham. In between, he took second place in the Graduation Chase at Carlisle. The Grand Annual Challenge Cup winner is yet to find form. At this distance and in this company, we wouldn't anticipate an unexpected result.
