Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
At the MKM Stadium, two of the league’s most underperforming teams in terms of expected goals will meet. Hull City are second from the bottom, underachieving by 9.61 xG, while Swansea City are third, with 8.85 less than expected. Will they manage to break the minimum goal barrier?
Hull City
In reality, the likelihood of a total over is only slightly lower than total under. Yes, Hull City don’t score much (not more than a single goal in the past three months), but they have conceded at least two goals in four of their last seven matches. For instance, Coventry City came from behind to defeat Hull (2:1). However, they have been even less fortunate in finishing. Coventry are at the bottom concerning goal potential difference (-10.3 xG).
Swansea City
Since the November international break, Swansea City have been involved in high-scoring matches, despite previously favouring 1:0 scorelines. In five of their last six fixtures, at least three goals were scored, with a total of five in the latest round. They squandered a two-goal lead over Sunderland (2:3) within the first 17 minutes. The match saw five goals, yet the teams combined for no more than two expected goals (0.90–0.96 in xG). Does this mean Swansea's underperformance pertains primarily to the first quarter of the season?
Hull City vs Swansea City Prediction
The hosts' defence is evidently vulnerable, so Swansea City should have plenty of opportunities to find the back of the net. However, the visitors have also conceded in each of their last five away games. Therefore, an outcome of over 2.5 would not be surprising.
