Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA Bad Homburg match.
The semi-finals at the Bad Homburg tournament offer Iga Świątek another chance to break through to her first final of the 2025 season. The Polish player has reached this stage six times already this year without managing to progress further. Jasmine Paolini, on the other hand, is under pressure to defend valuable ranking points from her runner-up finish at Wimbledon last year, and a physically demanding match against Iga Świątek would not be ideal given Paolini’s current circumstances.
Iga Świątek
Iga Świątek is currently ranked eighth in the world, but is within close range of a return to the top five. A deep run in Germany could be enough to lift her back into that elite group. So far in Bad Homburg, she has recorded straight-set wins over both Victoria Azarenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova, each by a 2:0 scoreline. Impressively, Świątek has averaged five aces per match and has won 78% of points on her first serve. She also boasts a dominant 4:0 head-to-head record against Jasmine Paolini, with three of those victories coming in straight sets.
Jasmine Paolini
Jasmine Paolini enters this match ranked fourth, though her position is under threat as she attempts to defend points from last year's Wimbledon final. In Bad Homburg, she has come through matches against Leylah Fernandez and Beatriz Haddad Maia, though neither encounter was straightforward. Despite winning both in straight sets, each set extended to at least 12 games. Her serving has been somewhat inconsistent, with just 61% of first serves going in and being won, and an average of one ace per match.
Iga Świątek vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction
Iga Świątek has looked in control throughout the tournament, and her dominant head-to-head record suggests she will maintain that form. This match is expected to follow a familiar pattern, with Świątek likely to progress past Jasmine Paolini without major resistance.
