Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Colombian Primera A match.
The final of the Colombian Apertura brings together two clubs bearing the name Independiente — Independiente Santa Fe and Independiente Medellín — who will contest the championship title for the first half of 2025, regardless of the hopes of the rest of the league.
Independiente Santa Fe
Among the two finalists, Independiente Santa Fe were the more anticipated contenders. Firstly, they reached the final series of the Apertura last year. Secondly, they topped the Clausura regular season in the autumn, though they failed to progress from the playoff group. In the current campaign, they delivered a middling performance in the regular season, finishing in sixth place. However, they found form in the group semi-finals, particularly in the final two rounds, including a crucial 2 : 1 victory over direct rivals Millonarios to secure the sole qualification spot.
Independiente Medellín
Independiente Medellín secured their place in the final even earlier — one round before the end of the playoffs — and held a five-point advantage two rounds before the conclusion. Impressively, they went unbeaten in their group with four wins and two draws. This run is especially surprising given that Independiente Medellín only finished eighth in the regular season, the last position granting entry to the playoff semi-finals. Alejandro Restrepo retained his position despite failing to improve on a ninth-place finish in the previous Clausura.
Independiente Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellín Prediction
The final will be played over two legs, giving both teams a chance to recover from any early setback. While both Independiente Santa Fe and Independiente Medellín delivered similarly strong performances in the group semi-finals, Independiente Santa Fe struggled at home, collecting just 3 points from a possible 12 on their own pitch. Independiente Medellín, by contrast, have shown consistent form both at home and away. Based on this, our choice is a double chance on the visitors.
