Adam Williams presents his prediction for the NBA match.
After a strong finish to the regular season, the Indiana Pacers have earned home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs – their first time in 11 years. They head into the opener as clear favourites, with many expecting a comfortable victory. However, their dominance may not be as assured as it seems.
Indiana Pacers
The late-season surge from the Indiana Pacers came largely against underperforming opponents. Comfortable wins over the Washington Wizards, the Utah Jazz, the Charlotte Hornets, and the Brooklyn Nets somewhat inflated their momentum. In addition, although the Pacers are facing fewer injury problems overall, Caris LeVert remains hampered by an elbow issue. Over the past month, he has hit just 9 of 32 attempts from three-point range (28.1%), well below his season average of 38.9%, and he has missed several games – including the last two.
Milwaukee Bucks
The absence of Khris Middleton has seen Giannis Antetokounmpo step up in emphatic fashion. He delivered an outstanding regular season, averaging 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists. Notably, the last time Giannis Antetokounmpo was this efficient from mid-range (44.2%), the Bucks went on to win the title. He missed last year’s postseason entirely. Furthermore, the Bucks controlled the regular season series against the Indiana Pacers, winning 3 of 4 meetings – with their only loss coming by a single possession (114:115).
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction
That final statistic could prove the most persuasive argument backing the Milwaukee Bucks. While the Indiana Pacers bring their signature high-tempo offence and sharp ball movement – averaging 403 passes per 24 minutes of possession – and consistently dominate in transition play (+9.3 and +14.4), they still came up short. The primary recommendation is to back the underdog to cover the spread.
