Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the NBA match.
Let's be honest: the version of the New York Knicks that secured a 106:100 win in Game 3 wasn't significantly different from the one that lost the first two games. The key factor was Karl-Anthony Towns, who took control in the fourth quarter and effectively delivered the victory for the New York Knicks. It's perhaps no surprise that bookmakers have since increased their trust in the Indiana Pacers.
Indiana Pacers
Nevertheless, the slight –2.5 spread still doesn't reflect the real gap in class between these two teams. The Indiana Pacers are simply the stronger team. It's enough to say they nearly won Game 3 despite hitting only 20% of their three-pointers (5 out of 25) on their home court. The Pacers have a deeper roster and quality role players. At home, they should, and must, shoot more accurately. In the playoffs, the Pacers lead all teams in three-point accuracy at 40.8% with 34.5 attempts per game.
New York Knicks
An unexpected factor could always give the New York Knicks one win in this series, but not more. Karl-Anthony Towns looked lacklustre in the two home games—particularly on defence—and for much of the last game too. At one point, Tom Thibodeau was forced to start Mitchell Robinson to compensate for Towns' off-ball errors. Issues for the New York Knicks persist—for instance, Jalen Brunson made just 6 of 18 shots and quickly accumulated five fouls. This was arguably his worst game in recent weeks, despite often being guarded by bench players of the Indiana Pacers. Additionally, Aaron Nesmith suffered an injury.
Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Prediction
The market continues to slightly underestimate the Indiana Pacers. Their impressive run extends from the regular season—having won over 70% of their games in 2024. In the Eastern Conference, only the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers achieved similar results. In the previous round, the Indiana Pacers already proved their superiority over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Therefore, it's puzzling why bookmakers gave the New York Knicks a two-possession advantage on their home court (4.5 and 6 points), while the Indiana Pacers only received a single-possession spread. This is an opportunity worth taking advantage of.
