Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the NBA match.
The Finals now shift to Indiana, where the Pacers will try to breathe new life into the series after a disappointing showing in Game 2 (107:123). Bookmakers remain sceptical about the hosts, listing them as home underdogs with a +5.5-point spread.
Indiana Pacers
Game 2 laid bare how this series was always likely to unfold, had the Pacers not pulled off a miraculous comeback in the opener. Despite limiting turnovers (just 15), the team struggled mightily against the Oklahoma City Thunder's fluid, interchangeable defence. Tyrese Haliburton was tightly marked by Luguentz Dort, while Pascal Siakam all but disappeared after the break — going just 3-for-11 from the field in the second half. The question is whether a return to Gainbridge Fieldhouse can change anything. Judging by past precedent, there’s not much reason for optimism.
Oklahoma City Thunder
This marks just the fourth time in the past 50 years that a team has been favoured by five or more points away in an NBA Finals game. In all three prior cases, those teams were leading their series either 3-0 or 3-1. Most recently, the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Philadelphia 76ers by 12 under such conditions. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Thunder replicate that, especially considering the bizarre trend in their road games. Remarkably, they have a positive away record this postseason (4-3), but failed to cover the spread in all seven matches. That’s an unprecedented stat in NBA history. The only vaguely similar case occurred in 2008, when the champion Celtics failed to meet the spread six straight times on the road, only to cover in five of their final six. Over time, the numbers do tend to correct themselves.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
During the regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder covered the spread in 25 of their 40 away games (62.5%), with two pushes — the best mark in the league. They have proven themselves on the road, and it feels like the moment has come for them to win big.
