Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the NBA match.
The final home appearance of the season for the Indiana Pacers could also signal the end of their campaign. Despite their explosive Game 3 performance and a dramatic finish in Game 4, the team remains in a precarious position due to lingering doubts over Tyrese Haliburton's fitness.
Indiana Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton is the engine of this squad, the playmaker around whom everything revolves. While it's common for players to push through injuries in the NBA Finals, scoring just four points in 34 minutes after returning to the court strongly suggests the problem is more than minor. If Tyrese Haliburton is unavailable or limited, Pascal Siakam becomes even more critical. The Cameroonian forward has hit his stride in this series, averaging 23 points per game across the last three matchups.
Oklahoma City Thunder
From a trends standpoint, the Oklahoma City Thunder are in a strong position. Road favourites holding a 3:2 lead in either the NBA Finals or Conference Finals have won five of the last six such games. These wins have rarely been close: the average margin of victory stands at 17 points, with teams outperforming the spread by an additional 12.7 points. Notable examples include the Phoenix Suns’ 130:103 thrashing of the Los Angeles Clippers, the Los Angeles Lakers’ commanding 106:93 victory over the Miami Heat, and LeBron James’ all-out domination in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 113:87 win against the Toronto Raptors.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
The Indiana Pacers squandered their opportunity to swing the momentum in Game 4, collapsing in the decisive fourth quarter. Now the Oklahoma City Thunder are firmly in the driver’s seat. To manage risk, we’re turning to Pascal Siakam's individual scoring line. He regularly puts up 15 or more shots per game, and when his field goal attempts aren't dropping, he finds a way to the charity stripe. Even if the Indiana Pacers come up short, Pascal Siakam looks well-placed to surpass 21.5 points.
