Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Serie A match.
Ahead of the upcoming derby between Inter Milan and AC Milan, almost all advanced statistics and recent head-to-head results do not favour AC Milan. For Paulo Fonseca, Sunday's game could be his last at the helm of AC Milan, as the club's management are actively searching for his replacement.
Inter Milan
Inter Milan's midweek encounter with Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium ended in a rather uneventful 0:0 draw. Inter Milan conceded 2.24 xGA but did not allow any clear-cut chances (only five shots on target). Meanwhile, Matteo Darmian's one-on-one chance with Ederson Moraes nearly gave them the win. The coach rested key players such as Lautaro Martínez, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Benjamin Pavard, and Denzel Dumfries. They are all expected to return to the lineup for the derby. Notably, in Serie A, only Atalanta BC have a better xG than Inter Milan (8.58 vs to 9.17).
AC Milan
AC Milan have also shown strong attacking form (7.73 xG over four league games, the fourth-best in the league), but this does not offset their defensive errors. In terms of expected goals against (xGA), AC Milan are in the lower half of the Serie A table (5.93 xGA). Their 3:1 loss to Liverpool at the San Siro highlighted their defensive frailties during free kicks and corners, with two goals conceded from corners. The injury to full-back Davide Calabria leaves the inconsistent Emerson Royal as the only option on the flank for the coach.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction
Since the beginning of 2023, Inter Milan have won six consecutive matches against AC Milan, scoring fewer than two goals on only two occasions. Inter Milan are poised to capitalise on their neighbours' current disarray, especially with their coach on the brink of being replaced.
