Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UEFA Nations League match.
Following a remarkable comeback victory in Paris (3:1), Italy are set to play against Israel, who are the main contenders for the last place in the group. But is success so guaranteed for the Italian side?
Israel
On Friday, Israel suffered a 3:1 defeat to Belgium in an away match on neutral ground. The score could have been even more one-sided, but Loïs Openda missed a second penalty. Israel managed to equalise in the first half only due to an own goal by Timothy Castagne. However, they had no real chance of a different outcome besides a loss. Only in the final 10 minutes of the first half did they take the initiative and attack. Their xG tells a lot — 0.59, while Belgium’s was 3.61. This match will also be held in Budapest behind closed doors, so Israel can't count on support from their fans.
Italy
It seemed like Italy were in for a tough time after a dreadful start when Giovanni Di Lorenzo hesitated, and Bradley Barcola simply dispossessed him and ran towards the goal. Conceding a goal in the first 13 seconds is a shock that can be hard to overcome. But the team managed to turn the match around and the coaching staff will remember this terrible incident. In terms of accurate strikes, Italy surpassed France twice (6-3) and scored even more than expected (1.74 xG). Important win, but they lost key defender Riccardo Calafiori to a thigh injury, and he has already left the squad.
Israel - Italy Prediction
Historically, these teams have met five times, but only twice in the 21st century. In the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, Italy won both times: 3:1 away and 1:0 at home. In Israel's last four matches, at least three goals have been scored, often in their net. Therefore, considering Italy's strong performance in the first round, our prediction is for a high-scoring victory for them.
